The Forecast Process
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is responsible for forecasting all tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins around North America. The NHC forecasts the track, intensity, size, and structure of tropical cyclones, storm surges, rainfall, and tornadoes associated with tropical cyclones, and the likelihood of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. The overall skill of these forecasts is shown in the section on Hurricane Forecast Model Accuracy. Once a tropical cyclone forms, NHC staff follows a set of procedures to generate a set of forecast products and then communicate those products outside of NHC every six hours. While the NHC forecast process is the focus here, other agencies responsible for tropical cyclone forecasting in other ocean basins [link to Hurricane Forecast Regions and Centers] follow similar procedures, but their procedures are tailored to the needs of their areas of responsibility and are guided by the observational, modeling, and forecast dissemination capabilities of those areas.